New Poll: Clinton +14 with Florida Hispanics

A new CBS / YouGov poll released today shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by five points among likely voters in Florida, including a 14-point advantage among Hispanics.

image

While we shouldn’t read too deeply into this cross-tab, since the Hispanic sample of the 1,194-person poll was 184, a margin of error of +/- 72%, it’s a good sign for Democrats for a few reasons:

  1. Ninety-four percent of Hispanic voters who selected Trump or Clinton said that they’re unlikely to change their minds—the highest level of certainty among any demographic.
  2. With less than three months to go before Election Day, Clinton’s +14 lead is similar and within the margin of error of President Obama’s 2008 (+15) and 2012 (+21) performance with Hispanics, which were widely seen as critical to placing Florida in the Democratic column both years.
  3. Conversely, Trump’s 39% share of the Florida Hispanic vote, while high compared to his national average, mirrors Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance, the lowest for a GOP presidential candidate in recent state history.

The only demographic where Trump leads Clinton in Florida is with white voters who make up approximately 67% of the electorate and where he’s winning by 11 points, 48-37.  Silver lining? Not exactly. Trump is underperforming Romney’s 2012 numbers among whites by 14 points in Florida.

As the race currently stands, Clinton can lose Florida—along with Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada—and still become President, but these latest numbers point to a decisive win in the Sunshine State.

No, Tim Kaine Isn’t “Hispandering”

3500
Source: UPI/Barcroft Images

A recent Time op-ed argued that Hillary Clinton’s running-mate, Sen. Tim Kaine, was among a long list of examples of American brands and leaders that pander to Latinos.

When Clinton announced her pick, many Latino pundits were disappointed, but there was a silver lining offered: Tim Kaine speaks SpanishRather than address the lack of people of color running for and winning higher office, Latino communities were expected to be content with the fact that Kaine speaks both English and Spanish.

Big deal. So do I. So does my family. So do millions of Latinos. So did Jeb Bush, now the long-forgotten Republican presidential candidate hopeful. The U.S. has the second most Spanish speakers in the world, following Mexico. Roughly 11.6 million people in the U.S. are bilingual.

Yes, capturing the hearts and minds of a diverse $1.3 trillion market is a top priority for U.S. companies and political parties, and some get their Latino outreach horribly wrong. Tim Kaine isn’t one of those people.

The three basic rules for engaging Latino voters and consumers are: (1) Be Authentic: Latino consumers and voters are sophisticated and can sniff out phonies. We want policies and brands that advance our communities and we will not automatically support you merely because you speak Spanish, particularly Latino millennials; (2) Values Matter: All Latinos want to know that you respect our culture and share our values; and (3) Understand the Nuances: Brands and politicians should understand the diversity among Latinos. Salvadorians in Columbia Heights, Boricuas in Alphabet City, and Cubans in Kendall are all Latinos, but they’re also different consumers.

Tim Kaine’s Latino outreach doesn’t just follow these rules, it embodies them. Here’s why:

  1. Authenticity: Kaine’s near-perfect Spanish isn’t a phony focus group concoction; it’s who he is. He didn’t learn Spanish to win votes, and he doesn’t just speak it come election time. More importantly, his policy positions—from immigration reform to health care to taxes, education, and U.S. Cuba relations—are perfectly aligned with the views of the majority of voters within Latino communities.
  2. Values: How Tim Kaine learned Spanish—as a Jesuit missionary helping impoverished families in Honduras—speaks volumes about his personal values, and most importantly, it shows that he values Latinos. Regardless of whether you’re a Spanish-speaking Latino or not, all Latinos can respect Kaine’s life story and the fact that he’s a white politician who embraces their culture at a time when it’s under attack.
  3. Nuances: Hillary Clinton introduced Tim Kaine in Miami where speaking Spanish isn’t just smart politics, it’s necessary to a large and critical voting and consumer bloc in the country’s top swing state. For example, in the Miami media market, Univision and Telemundo newscasts frequently win the ratings battles among all demographics.

While it’s true that Clinton would have likely won Latino voters by large margins regardless of whom she selected as her running mate, based on what I’ve described above, we shouldn’t dismiss Tim Kaine’s role in helping to broaden or deepen her support among Latinos and/or non-Latino voters who value diversity. It would be wise for Latino leaders to resist accusing someone who has dedicated his life to serving our communities, shares our values, and understands our diversity of pandering merely because he speaks Spanish.

Kaine’s fluency, life decisions, and values should be praised by Latinos, as should those of other politicians and brands that follow suit.

Twain or Twitter?

“I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.”
– Mark Twain

Between work and travel, it’s been difficult to do any writing recently beyond 140 characters.

So, I’m launching my own blog to write about topics that I’m passionate about and where I hope that my insights can add some value to the public discourse, mainly:

  • Communications & PR
  • Polling
  • Politics
  • Marketing
  • Latino Issues & Cuba
  • Economics
  • Food & Travel
  • And sometimes a mix of all of the above.

I’ll try to keep my posts short and sweet (think Seth Godin’s blog), hoping to strike a happy medium between Twain and Twitter while trying my best to adhere to Ogilvy’s rules.

Follow along and if you have any questions / thoughts, feel free to reach out.

– Giancarlo